Hao Min: The U.S. scientific and technological war on China, technical terrorism threatens the world

The trade war in the United States has been in China for 5 years, and its main axis has been launched from the Trump administration’s trade war as a scientific and technological war in the Biden government.The essence of the United States for the China Science and Technology War is to curb and suppress China ’s innovative development capabilities in the high -tech field, to prevent China’ s pursuit of the rise of the high -end technology industry chain, and then reduce China’s development space and speed, so as to maintain the major American technology itself technologyGlobal economic dividends and national security advantages created by this.In the future, the two countries will focus on the high point of scientific and technological development and technological standards of the 21st century. It is the overall contest of the comprehensive national strength, system and culture of the two sides, and has long -term, arduousness and complexity.

First, scientific and technological competition has become the focus of the strategic game of China and the United States.

From “small courtyard high walls” to “comprehensive decourse” to “precise stripping”, the United States has decoupled “technology, finance, politics, military, and discourse hegemony in the United States as theImportant strategic tools.On the one hand, the United States supports its domestic scientific and technological innovation and development through new legislative and industrial policy subsidies, and on the other hand, through strict export control and intellectual property monopoly, it politically politically.It continues to generalize the concept of national security and regards “supply chain elasticity” as national security issues; and uses countries’ concerns about geopolitics uncertainty to win allies to create the “Science and Technology Anti -China Alliance”.

Second, focus on key semiconductor areas and implement policy bills that suppress Chinese technology.

Since the Bayeon administration, the most significant performance of the United States in competition in China is the competition for the advantages of the semiconductor industry.Semiconductor technology is not only the basic composition of the high -tech industry in the digital age, but also about national security, which has significant strategic significance for almost all socio -economic fields. It is a destiny industry that is strictly guarded by the United States.

First of all, the “Chip and Science Act” means to solve its own manufacturing shortcomings while achieving a “stuck neck” to China.On August 9, 2022, the Bayeng government signed the “Chip and Science Act” investment investment of $ 280 billion. The main intention is to increase the self -sufficient rate of the United States in the chip industry chain, promote the localization of manufacturing, reduce supply to overseas supply overseas,The dependence of the chain strengthens the US economy and national security.The “Chip and Science Act” also emphasizes one -way restrictions on China: chip manufacturers who have obtained US federal fund subsidies shall not conduct major transactions, new or new transactions related to semiconductor manufacturing capabilities related to China or other “receiving countries” within at least 10 years.Expand the production capacity of high -end chip and ensure that these restrictions are consistent with the US export control regulations -unless the low -tech “old chips” produced by their production only serve the local market.In addition, the “guardrail clauses” and “research security” clauses in the “Chip and Science Act” prohibit federal research institutions from joining the “Foreign Talent Recruitment Plan” and strictly forbidden to fund the participants in the “malicious foreign talent plan”.Personnel will be deprived of the qualifications to apply for Federal Federal research funds, trying to force global semiconductor companies, capital, and science and technology talents to choose from.

Secondly, the Ministry of Commerce continues to increase the new regulations for semiconductor export control.On October 7, 2022, the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Security Agency issued the latest revised rules for the “Export Control Regulations”. The new restrictions are mainly aimed at the advanced computing circuit developed and produced in China, any type of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and any type of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.supercomputer.This new regulations for export control broke through the scope of previous entity list sanctions enterprises and regulatory objects, and changed the traditional regulatory logic based on “item control”.The category enables industry personnel to face or abandon career or abandon American identity.

Finally, the new version of the “National Security Strategy” declared that “the next 10 years will be the decisive 10 years of competition between the United States and China.”On October 12, last year, the Bayeng government released the first “National Security Strategy” report in any of the “National Security Strategy” report. The 48 -page report mentioned 87 times “technology” and ranked first on the keyword list.Talents are placed in an important position to win national competition.

Third, the practice of the United States to reshape the science and technology industry policy does not guarantee its supply chain security.

The introduction of the “Chip and Science Act” shows that the United States can’t wait to reshape the scientific and technological industry policy for decades, trying to use real gold and silver, subsidies and corporate tax reductions, plus the “prohibiting recipients of federal incentive funds from expanding in a specific country to expandOr build a new capacity of advanced semiconductors and ensure that these restrictions are consistent with the consistent with US export control regulations “to support the local manufacturing industry.However, analysis generally believes that the US chip manufacturing industry is difficult to reverse in the short term.

According to the report of the “Strengthening Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in the Uncertain Time” reported by the US Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group in April 2021, it is estimated that the research and development of the entire semiconductor supply chain and capital expenditure in the next 10 years is expected to be about $ 3 trillion.The US completely self -sufficient chip supply chain will require at least $ 1 trillion in early investment.In contrast, 52.7 billion yuan in the “Chip and Science Act” can only be regarded as a lot of money.Moreover, it is reported that the “Chip and Science Act” will lead to an increase of US $ 79 billion in the US federal government deficit in the next 10 years.The huge financial subsidy of the chip industry is likely to become bubbles.

Fourth, the development orientation of the US semiconductor is full of cold war thinking and hegemony.

The process and orientation of the US semiconductor development are full of cold war thinking and ideological prejudice.In the 1980s, the United States tried to protect its chip’s leading position, providing motivation for stealth fighters and other weapons, and caused unbearable costs to the Soviet Union; later, on the grounds of “national security” and “illegal dumping”The development momentum of the Japanese chip industry.Washington is now trying to repeat the trick, with exclusive technological advantages and coercion diplomacy, strengthen economic and scientific and technological hegemony, and implement “technical terrorism” worldwide.It strives to build the global semiconductor industry chain alliance, continuously lobby and pressure the Netherlands and Japanese governments, prohibit the sale of advanced light machines to China, and attract Japan and South Korea and Taiwan to join the “Chip Quartet Alliance”.Standard sharing, equipment and materials are engaged in internal collaboration and external closure, forming a closer lap of Chinese excretion.This kind of camp -oriented method makes the chip cooperation of the United States present a strong geopolitical color.

Fifth, Midea’s global operation has a self -eating fruit, or it brings the global chip industry crisis.

First of all, in the case of a significant excess of chip production and a sharp decline in prices, the United States still invests in the chip industry as a key field.Washington, a Washington anti -globalization operation, will definitely trigger alert countries and regions such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, they all want to continue to maintain the strength of the local chip industry chain through support of tax reduction, research cooperation, and working training subsidies.EssenceThis will further lead to raw materials, manufacturing equipment, capital, and human resources of the global semiconductor industry, exacerbating the irrational competition of the global semiconductor regional ecosystem, and causing the global semiconductor trade structure to be unstable.

Secondly, the United States abuses export control, and US companies will be hit by itself.Recently, the financial reports disclosed by listed companies in the United States have fully verified this. In 2022, US semiconductor companies’ general performance was bleak, and most of the revenue and profits showed a significant decline.In the fourth quarter of last year’s financial report, Intel’s revenue fell by about 32%year -on -year, and net profit fell 114%compared with the same period of the previous year.As of November last year, AMD’s stock price has fallen by nearly 60%, and the stock price of many companies such as Nvidia has fallen around 50%.Analysts generally believe that the export of the United States to restrict the export of semiconductor -related items to China is one of the important reasons for the poor performance of American companies.

Finally, the impact of a new round of supply chain significantly weakened the actual effectiveness of the United States to deal with economic recession.American economist David Goldman wrote that the United States’ implementation of export control in China in the semiconductor field, damage to the capital investment and R & D activities of the Western semiconductor industry will be 5 times higher than the moderate subsidy provided by Washington to the semiconductor industry.Even more, this will further worsen the status of the industrial chain of the US home.The semiconductor industry is the product of global cooperation. The relevant practices of the United States depart from the principle of fair competition, violate the rules of international economic and trade, not only harm the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, but also seriously affect the interests of American companies.Chain stability and the recovery of the world economy have caused serious impact.

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